Monday, July 20, 2015

2024 Season Preview

After capturing the Earl Weaver Division pennant in 2022, the Portland Beavers entered the next spring training period with high hopes. Nick Holmes had just garnered his third consecutive MVP award, led the TML in batting for the second consecutive season, and won the TML triple crown. The front office team also had made several moves that everyone thought would improve the squad.

The optimistic mood was, however, short-lived. In the first week of spring training Holmes fractured a bone in his elbow and was lost to the team for the first half of the season. The players pulled together and attempted to remain competitive, but after a decent showing in April the team imploded. A 5-23 record in May followed by an 8-18 record in June sealed the team's fate. The silver lining was that we were able to experiment in an attempt to identify players who could play more significant roles going forward.

In early July, Wilson Flores was called up and handed the starting job in center field. Flores had been tearing it up (.411/.479/.532 in 34 games) with the AAA Vancouver Canadians. Meanwhile Takiji Ojima had been a disappointment in that role playing for the parent club. Flores settled in and played very well (.314/.367/.444 in 77 games) for the Beavers throughout the remainder of the season. It appears that Flores is here to stay, one of the more positive outcomes that resulted while the franchise struggled to win 57 games.

Looking ahead to 2024, in the early off-season the front office allowed several players who had become dead weight to become free agents. Then, in December, three players each of whom could play a key role in the upcoming season were acquired. Infielder Valentin Alvarado was signed to a three-year contract. Alvarado will assume the role of starting shortstop. Reliever Tsuneyo Kakutama was obtained via the Rule 5 draft; he will have the opportunity to strengthen the quality of the bullpen. Finally, Starting pitcher Shayne Linnie was signed to a modest, one-year contract to eat some innings as the fifth starter.

The remaining two open spots on the roster will be filled from within the organization. Antonio Barbarro will start in right field and southpaw Felix Barrera will function as a swingman who will provide support in relief and, if necessary, be available to start.

In summary, although the composition of the roster has not significantly changed the front office team believes the moves will improve overall offense and defense. Pitching remains the primary weakness, but hopefully some of the younger pitchers will exceed expectations. If it all comes together we could, once again, compete for a playoff berth. If we do, we should be able to revive fan interest, which suffered in 2023, increase attendance, and avoid the financial loss we incurred as a result. Let's have some fun, win some games, and generate a profit in 2024.

The opening day roster includes:

CATCHER - Mike Hobbs (.254, 22 HR, 66 RBI in 2023) again will catch the majority of innings and Miguel Leon (.205 in 2023 after batting .286 in 2022) catching one or two games a week and providing late-inning defensive support.

INFIELDERS – In his first full season in the bigs, Baber Davi (.291/.343/.461, 21 HR, 86 RBI), now 23 years old, sparked the offense and captured a Gold Glove award at first base. We look for him to build on this and continue to contribute for us. Two time all-star Pat Thompson (.337/.378/.482, 16 HR, 68 RBI, 22 SB) again will start and play second base. WAR totals of 3.8, 3.8, and 4.8 over the last three seasons are evidence that he is one of the better second basemen in the league. Bob Hennessey (.299/.356/.378), who has a cannon for an arm, will man the hot corner. Last season Hennessey played third for the second half and did an excellent job (+2.2 ZR, 1.016 EFF). Newly acquired Valentin Alvarado (.258, 32 HR, 93 RBI for Quebec) should generate improved run-producing punch while providing very good defensive support at the shortstop position.

Off the bench, 1B Jesus Cruz will platoon vs. left-handed starters. He can back-up at first, but he is such an awful fielder that we prefer not to hand him a glove. Dan Best will provide back-up support at the first, second, and third sacks. Fortunately the starters play multiple positions, so we should be able to juggle the lineups to cover for short-term ailments and provide players with opportunities for rest days.

OUTFIELDERS – From left to right, the outfield positions will be patrolled by Nick Holmes (.344/.445/.533 in 71 games), Wilson Flores, and rookie Antonio Barbarro (.305/.363/.478 for Vancouver). During the last half of 2023 Holmes demonstrated that he has fully recovered from the elbow injury. The entire Portland fan base is looking forward to a full season of thrills and chills generated by one of the better players on the planet. Flores is eager to play his first full season for the Beavers. Starting Barbarro at right field will enable us to move Pat Bancroft to the designated hitter role. Bancroft has regressed into a pathetic fielder (-27.0 ZR, .830 EFF). Undoubtedly Barbarro will shore up the defense.

In addition to Bancroft, Mathieu Bodin and Allen Cummings will provide back-up support. Bodin can flash the leather at all three outfield positions. Cummings can hit, but he is a one-dimensional player who can hit but stumbles around in the field.

DESIGNATED HITTER – Although Pat Bancroft is a liability in the field, he still can hit (.330/.387/.471, 42 2B, 13 HR, 71 RBI). He will start most games with Jesus Cruz enabling him to take an occasional day off when the Beavers face a southpaw.

STARTING PITCHERS – Pitching remains problematic. Until the Beavers can address the overall quality – or lack of it – of the starting five, we will have to go with what we have. We will open the season with a rotation of Nate Gary, Manuel Garcia, Fred Watson, Wilson Cruz, and Shayne Linnie. Despite a 5-17 record in 2023, Gary maintained a 4.04 ERA and accumulated a 4.0 WAR in 33 starts. In his first full season with the Beavers, Garcia registered a 9-10 record and a 4.91 ERA in 200 innings pitched. After three solid seasons, Watson was an extreme disappointment (6-17, 6.19 ERA), but he somehow accumulated a 2.1 WAR. He arrived at spring training determined to bounce back in 2024. Cruz (9-10, 4.74 ERA) showed improvement in his second full season and he is looking to continue to improve this season. With a 1.80 ERA during spring training, he appears to be primed to do so. Linnie hasn't had a great deal of success at the major league level, but a change of scenery could be just what the doctor ordered. He will have an opportunity to start the season as the fifth starter. If anyone falters, untested Felix Barrera will get a shot.

RELIEF PITCHERS – After missing the second half of last season with a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, Troy Fountain (11 saves, 2.60 ERA in 30 appearances) will return and anchor the bullpen in the closer role. In the setup role, Larry Foley and Weldon Hoskins will attempt to hold late-inning leads and pass the game to Fountain in a position for a save. Foley missed most of 2024 with an injury. It is good to have him back on the active roster. Hoskins (3.78 ERA in 43 relief appearances) is looking forward to a more demanding bullpen role. Other members of the bullpen include lefty Carlos Rubio, righty Pablo Alomar, and righty Tsuneyo Kakutama.

THE BOTTOM LINE

In 2024 the Beavers should bounce back at the plate. We hope to once again prove to be one of the top run-scoring offenses in the TML. If we do, we should be able to be competitive. In the field, our overall defense should improve, especially since the more significant defensive liabilities have been replaced by players with improved fielding skills. Pitching should again be an adventure. The front office team is hopeful that a better defense will translate into fewer runs scored by opposing teams, but the pitching staff must step up and produce.

The bottom line is that this is the ABL and anything can happen. In the last four seasons the Beavers have bounced around from 1st, to 3rd, to 1st, and to 4th in our division. Can we improve by about 30 wins and again be in the playoff hunt? Who knows? The opening day prognosticators believe we can compete in a hotly contested race for the Earl Weaver Division pennant. We hope they are right.

Go Beavers!

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